Post by mickeymac on Jan 4, 2020 13:30:43 GMT -6
Coming into this fight, Cowboy Cerrone faces a crossroads. Being forever a fan favorite and magnet to exhilarating fights faces serious long term repercussions as the unforgiving MMA community knows all too well. From wars with Nate Diaz, Ben Henderson, Robbie Lawler, and Tony Ferguson - to being absolutely demolished by the likes of Jorge Masvidal, RDA, and most recently Justin Gaethje, Cerrone is no stranger to walking into the fire with his chin up. Against McGregor, your chin up will leave you face down.
I know, I know, its all been said. Either McGregor cleans him up in the first, or Cerrone subs him late. Right?
To analyze this fight I wanted to dig a little deeper into points I haven't seen mentioned constantly online. One point of emphasis I want to harp on is the reach. It may be surprising for you to hear that McGregor ( 74in) actually has a slight reach advantage over Cowboy (73in). This is important to note because looking back at some of Cowboys best performances - most were fights he enjoyed a healthy reach advantage ( Al Iaquinta, Alex Hernandez, Rick Story). Far and away the bigger puncher of the two, this reach advantage will significantly benefit McGregor - whos greatest attribute is distance management.
I have been reading a bunch of disrespect about McGregors skillset leading into this fight. Many have forgotten the devastating left hand from various angles. Even more have forgotten the flashy array of kicks he utilized earlier in his career. Most importantly, a lot of people are forgetting the hellacious body punches McGregor landed in the Nate Diaz rematch. Every time Nate began to press forward and rain in with volume, Mcgregor would dump a big shovel hook into his midsection to temporarily slow him.
With that said lets revisit the biggest flaws of Cowboy Cerrone
1) Body shots/General defense
2) The big spotlight
3) (honorable mention) Trash talkers
You start to see where im going here.. This is a match made in heaven for McGregor. He knows where Cowboy will be, and knows better than anybody how to capitalize on that. Expect to see a very patient McGregor rely on his distance and head movement through a reasonably competitive 1st round. In the 2nd round, expect McGregor to start unloading violence on Cowboy, who will crash to the canvas from a big body shot, and be finished off with punches on the ground. Then McGregor calls out Masvidal for a thriller in May.
Prediction - McGregor def Donald Cerrone via TKO ( punches) RD 2 3:22
Reccomended bet - McGregor inside the distance (-190)
Worth a play - McGregor in the 2nd round ( +350)
I know, I know, its all been said. Either McGregor cleans him up in the first, or Cerrone subs him late. Right?
To analyze this fight I wanted to dig a little deeper into points I haven't seen mentioned constantly online. One point of emphasis I want to harp on is the reach. It may be surprising for you to hear that McGregor ( 74in) actually has a slight reach advantage over Cowboy (73in). This is important to note because looking back at some of Cowboys best performances - most were fights he enjoyed a healthy reach advantage ( Al Iaquinta, Alex Hernandez, Rick Story). Far and away the bigger puncher of the two, this reach advantage will significantly benefit McGregor - whos greatest attribute is distance management.
I have been reading a bunch of disrespect about McGregors skillset leading into this fight. Many have forgotten the devastating left hand from various angles. Even more have forgotten the flashy array of kicks he utilized earlier in his career. Most importantly, a lot of people are forgetting the hellacious body punches McGregor landed in the Nate Diaz rematch. Every time Nate began to press forward and rain in with volume, Mcgregor would dump a big shovel hook into his midsection to temporarily slow him.
With that said lets revisit the biggest flaws of Cowboy Cerrone
1) Body shots/General defense
2) The big spotlight
3) (honorable mention) Trash talkers
You start to see where im going here.. This is a match made in heaven for McGregor. He knows where Cowboy will be, and knows better than anybody how to capitalize on that. Expect to see a very patient McGregor rely on his distance and head movement through a reasonably competitive 1st round. In the 2nd round, expect McGregor to start unloading violence on Cowboy, who will crash to the canvas from a big body shot, and be finished off with punches on the ground. Then McGregor calls out Masvidal for a thriller in May.
Prediction - McGregor def Donald Cerrone via TKO ( punches) RD 2 3:22
Reccomended bet - McGregor inside the distance (-190)
Worth a play - McGregor in the 2nd round ( +350)
